The belated September national jobs report landed this week, and as always, the headlines can be confusing. Here’s a concise, jargon-free explanation of what actually happened—plus a quick ask for your perspective on our local outlook.

Two Different Surveys, Two Different Pictures

Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes numbers from two separate surveys:

1. Establishment Survey (the “payroll” or “jobs added” number everyone quotes)

• Surveys ~122,000 businesses and government agencies
• Asks: “How many people were on your payroll this month?”
• Counts jobs, not people (someone with two jobs = two jobs counted)
• September result: +119,000 jobs nationally
• Revisions: August was revised from +22,000 down to –4,000 (a swing of only 26,000, well inside the survey’s typical ±100,000 margin of error)

2. Household Survey (the one that produces the unemployment rate)

• Surveys ~60,000 households
• Asks individuals: “Did you work last week, or actively look for work?”
• Counts people once, regardless of how many jobs they hold
• This survey showed employment rising by more than half a million in September and the unemployment rate holding essentially steady at 4.4%.

Because the surveys measure different things with different sample sizes, they often move in different directions month-to-month. Economists watch both but focus on the trend over several months rather than any single headline.

The Trend

Nationally, job growth has clearly cooled from the 2022–2024 pace, falling from an average of 380K monthly jobs added in 2022 to 216K in 2023, 168 in 2024 and only 76K in 2025. However, we are still adding jobs, and the labor market remains historically tight. Greenville continues to perform better than most: our county unemployment rate stood at 4.4% in August (latest detailed data). In terms of jobs added, it was a mixed bag. Using Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin MSA data, nonfarm employment grew by 1.5% between August 2025 and August 2025. However, short-term employment growth from July to August 2025 showed a decrease of 1,500 jobs.  We shall see where we head into 2026.

Your Voice Matters
To make sure we’re advocating with the most current, on-the-ground intelligence, we’re running our Fall Upstate Business Confidence Index Survey—three minutes that give us a real-time pulse on how you currently view overall economic conditions, your industry’s outlook, as well as your company’s situation.

Please click here to share your outlook: Fall 2025 Upstate Business Confidence Index Survey.

Responses are anonymous, and the survey closes on December 1st. Results will be published in early December.

Thank you for taking a moment to weigh in. Together, we keep Greenville one of the strongest economies in the Southeast.

For questions, please contact Hank Hyatt, SVP of Economic Competitiveness at the Greenville Chamber.